Have you heard about Peak Oil?

[Cleisthenis]

Welcome!

This forum, is a spin-off of the biggest and most active Peak Oil group on facebook.

What is Peak Oil you ask? Well...



For over a century, oil has given us a seemingly unlimited supply of cheap energy to fuel the growth of modern civilization. From gasoline and diesel fuels to fertilizers, plastics and petrochemicals - petroleum truly permeates society. Virtually every industry including transportation, manufacturing and agriculture is highly dependent on this non-renewable resource. Experts agree that we won't exhaust the earth's finite supply of oil for another century.

So what's the big deal?

The environmental impacts of fossil fuels aside, the central issue here is geological. Whether in an individual oil field, a nation or the planet as a whole, oil supply tends to follow a bell curve over time. That means oil production rates increase on the upslope of the bell curve, and decrease on the down slope. Typically, the peak of this curve occurs when reserves are 50 percent depleted, which is followed by an irreversible slow decline in production, and rising costs.

That's called Peak Oil, and it's the main driving force behind rising gasoline prices over the last few years.

With India, China and the rest of the world following in the industrial footsteps of the west, refining and production capacity is being strained as global demand is starting to outstrip supply.

Geologists, physicists, and investors alike agree that we're at, or near the tipping point, and none can accurately forecast the rate, intensity, or consequences of supply shortfall.

What we do know is that unstable and soaring fuel prices could send shocks throughout the global economy, radically affecting the cost of everything we consume. With potential crop failures due to drought as well as looming shortages of fuel, food and water, we've got a recipe for a global depression not seen since the dirty thirties.

Achieving continued economic prosperity in this new era of scarcity will be difficult.

What can we do about it?

It may be true that we are beyond the point of no return, however with innovation and preparation, we can try to avoid the worst case scenarios. Conveniently, the key solutions to peak oil and climate change are one and the same:

• 1. Conservation of fossil fuels
• 2. Investment in alternatives
• 3. Localized production
• 4. Sustainable agriculture
• 5. Public transit and urban densification

... and above all:

• 6. Our human spirit

With awareness and cooperation, we can become better informed and develop new habits. With collective and coordinated action, we can influence our governments and media to help us prepare and adapt in a positive way.

To that end, we are looking for motivated and optimistic people to join our network of 'Peak Oil Ambassadors' to act as part-time liaisons in their communities and organizations. You may contact me if you're interested.

So take a minute right now and invite all your friends to join this group, and next time you're having a conversation with someone, don't forget to ask:

"Have you heard about Peak Oil?"

Get informed

http://www.theoildrum.com
http://www.peakoil.net
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
http://www.oildepletionprotocol.org/
http://postcarbon.org/
http://omrpublic.iea.org/
http://www.howtoboilafrog.com/
http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php
http://www.communitysolution.org/
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
http://www.afstrinity.com/worldoil.htm
http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/oil/supply_demand.html
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0406/feature5/
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com

Further Research

http://del.icio.us/search/?fr=del_icio_us&p=peakoil&type=all
http://www.google.ca/search?q=peak+oil
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=peak+oil&search=Search

[d.wylie]

Wow. Just wow.

[Mike]

Actual oil field activity has started to drop in Alberta 2 years ago. While the numbers are not staggering a number of rig hands have moved on due to lack of work.

This type of decline has not been seen for a good 10 years. Speaking with a number of old school hands they swear this is a first in their books.

Most oil companies seem optimistic about the future but remains to pick up.

[Cleisthenis]

I'd love to see some actual near real-time data of traditional oil field production around the world. Perhaps one way to stay on top of the PO situation would be an international treaty, that among other things would require honest, transparent reporting of production and reserves.

Thoughts?

[d.wylie]

... they don't have that already? 

[Cleisthenis]

You'd think so but unfortunately, no dakota.

 

One of the main criticisms of OPEC, and a big reason why states reserve estimates are not accurate is that the quota of an individual nation, and what they are allowed to produce i.e. how much money they are allowed to make, is based on their stated reserves:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil#Concerns_over_stated_reserves

[Mondo]

Interesting link Cleisthenis.  Man .. what can I shorten that to??   

Cleissy? 

I found the oil company point of view regarding reserves most interesting. As overstating holdings would lead to a better stock market price, a better ROI for stockholders and so on.  Which once again just leads me back to questioning this economic system.  To a certain extent it is all just smoke and mirrors. 

I recall in the past often being confused about why "consumer confidence" mattered.  This is no longer the case, but it does confirm this view of smoke & mirrors.  Believe the economy is okay, act as if it is okay, and to a degree it will be okay.  To a degree, denial works. 

[Raos]

I find Cleis works well enough.

I think consumer confidence 'works' insofar as it protects the system form consumers bringing it down.  It's still vulnerable to many other factors.  The US economy would be in shambles even if everybody were content to watch their saving go down with it without running the bank, and indeed most of the decline has occurred without any bank runs.  The loss of consumer confidence is really only the penultimate effect/cause in what's been a long progression of events.

I think it's absolutely right to question the economic system, though, because it clearly failed.  There has got to be responsible regulation to ensure that things are sustainable and stable.

[Diogenes]

Interesting link Cleisthenis.  Man .. what can I shorten that to??   

Cleissy?   
 Cleisssy is so fey!
 Clee works and sounds manly hehehe ho ho

[Runningout]

Have you watched Zeitgeist The Movie? I found it very disturbing and wanted to find inconsistencies but it has been well written and probably well researched.

[Diogenes]

far to many will bleet conspiracy theory

Conspiracy means a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful: a conspiracy to destroy the government.

Theory means a well-substantiated explanation of some aspect of the natural world; an organized system of accepted knowledge that applies in a variety of circumstances to explain a set of phenomena; "theories can incorporate facts and laws and tested hypotheses".

Terminology: The term "conspiracy theory" may be a neutral descriptor for any conspiracy claim. To conspire means "to join in a secret agreement to do an unlawful or wrongful act or to use such means to accomplish a lawful end." However, conspiracy theory is also used to indicate a narrative genre that includes a broad selection of (not necessarily related) arguments for the existence of grand conspiracies, any of which might have far-reaching social and political implications if true.

The first recorded use of the phrase "conspiracy theory" dates to the year 1909. Originally it was a neutral term; during the political upheaval of the 1960s the term acquired its current derogatory sense. It entered the supplement to the Oxford English Dictionary as late as 1997.

In an early essay by Daniel Pipes "adapted from a study prepared for the CIA", Pipes attempts to pin down what beliefs distinguish 'the conspiracy mentality' from 'more conventional patterns of thought': appearances deceive; conspiracies drive history; nothing is haphazard; the enemy always gains; power, fame, money, and sex account for all.

The term "conspiracy theory" is frequently used by mainstream scholars and in popular culture to identify a type of folklore similar to an urban legend, especially an explanatory narrative which is constructed with particular methodological flaws. The term is also used pejoratively to dismiss claims that are alleged by critics to be misconceived, paranoid, unfounded, outlandish, irrational, or otherwise unworthy of serious consideration. (Wikipedia)
...

[Mondo]

Yes, "conspiracy theory" is used as a pejorative.  And it has a term than has been directed at me many times.  I wear it with pride.

Watching David Icke last night, he used the term "coincidence theorist", to describe those that decry "conspiracy theorist".

It is quite humorous really.  Coincidence theory regarding 9/11 for example.  All these "coincidences". 

For those that have 3 hours to spare, or wish to peruse, this is a great talk by David Icke:



http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4799447112501062338

[Raos]

I think it would be valuable to remember, though, that while being in accordance with popular opinion does not make one correct, neither does being in opposition to popular opinion make one correct.  That "conspiracy theory" has been used to de-legitimize valid and valuable explanations of events, doesn't mean that there aren't also crack-pot rantings that it's been applied to.  I don't see something liable to be labelled as a "conspiracy theory" as any more automatically worthy of belief as something labelled as "prevailing wisdom".

[Runningout]

Hello Raos, I felt compelled to respond.  Conspiracies have taken place and it is in the interest of the US Government for all conspiracy theories to be rubbished as it helps them to avoid a messy pubic inquiry. The important facts that i took away from the film, Zeitgeist, were more about the financial sector than the analysis of 9/11. Banks lending out money at insane ratios of around 10 dollars to every one dollar on deposit presuming that growth in oil production and growth in general would continue soaring upward. The bankers seem to have decided to go out in style.

[Runningout]

Conformism is a way of avoiding being singled out and it is in direct opposition to the Conspiracy theorist. Conforming and agreeing with popular belief allows people to feel a part of the group. While a conspiracy theorist may have fears and concerns and want others to see that there may be something out of place in what we are being told. I suspect everyone who has become peak oil aware is beginning to feel that a conspiracy has been woven to keep us all ignorant of the facts about the availability of fossil fuels and the coming decline in production which could well lead to a big energy gap if not managed correctly.